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MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

WEEKLY

OUTLOOK

20.11.2023-24.11.2023




Good afternoon traders. As the week approaches its end, we look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the events that had the most impact on the financial market. 

Financial markets started the new week in a calm mood, avoiding taking large positions and bracing for Tuesday's key macroeconomic data releases. On Monday, November 13, Moody’s cut the U.S. government’s outlook from “stable” to “negative,” while in New Zealand the services sector weakened from 50.6 to 48.9 in October with both releases having minor impact on global markets.

On Tuesday, November 14, the day kicked off with Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index release showing an improvement in November and boosting the EUR to new daily highs. Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.2% as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported later afternoon pushing the US Dollar under heavy pressure.

The US Dollar rose marginally on Wednesday, November 15, previous day’s releases and found support by a rebound in US Treasury yields. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.5% in October, contrary to expectations of a 0.1% increase while Retail Sales declined by 0.1% in October, against expectation of 0.3%.

On Thursday, November 16, during Asian session Australia’s Unemployment Rate report came at 3.7% in October and the Employment Change arrived at 55K. In the US, data from the US Department of Labor reported 231k initial jobless claims in the week ending November 11 while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to -5.9 beating market expectations of a -9 reading.

Finally, on Friday, November 17, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales fell 0.3% over the month in October vs. 0.3% expected and -1.1% registered in September.

Have a lovely weekend and a nice week ahead.


Monday 20 November 2023

Time CET

(GMT+1)

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

03:15

CNY

5-y Loan Prime Rate

-

-

09:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-

-14.7%

17:00

USD

CB Leading Index m/m

-0.7%

-0.7%


Tuesday 21 November 2023

Time CET

(GMT+1)

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

02:30

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

-

-

15:30

CAD

CPI m/m

-

-0.1%

17:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

-

3.96M

21:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

-

-


Wednesday 22 November 2023

Time CET

(GMT+1)

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

01:30

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

-

-

15:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

-

231k

17:00

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

-

60.4


Thursday 23 November 2023

Time CET

(GMT+1)

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

11:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

-

43.1

11:30

GBP

Flash Services PMI

-

217k

23:45

NZD

Retail Sales

-

-1.0%


Friday 24 November 2023

Time CET

(GMT+1)

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

01:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI

-

-

11:00

EUR

German ifo Business Climate

-

86.9

15:30

CAD

Core Retail Sales

-

0.1%

16:45

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

-

50.0



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