WEEKLY OUTLOOK

30.10.2023-03.11.2023

Good afternoon traders. As the week approaches its end, we look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the events that had the most impact on the financial market. 

Financial market began the week on a relative calm mood as traders anticipated this week’s key macroeconomic data releases which included two central bank decisions, global PMI data and US initial Q3 GDP reading. On Monday, October 23, lack of high-impact economic news kept investors on the sideline waiting for what’s to come.

On Tuesday, October 24, Eurozone’s PMIs readings indicated a significant contraction in Gross Domestic Product in October and lower inflation. In the UK PMIs came in mixed, with a moderate recovery in Manufacturing to 45.2. Elsewhere, the US PMIs exceeded expectations indicating that fundamentals still favor the US Dollar.

The BoC kept its key rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday, October 25, stating that it expects inflation to reach the 2% target by the end of 2025.In Australia, inflation sped up from 5.2% y/y to 5.4% y/y in September while quarterly CPI also went up from 0.8% to 1.2% in Q3.

On Thursday, October 26, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged marking the first time since June last year. In the US, Advance GDP came at 4.9% showing an expansion of the economy while the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first-time last week was 210k.

Finally, on Friday, October 27, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October came in at 3.3% YoY from 2.8% in September. In the US, Federal Reserve's primary inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index was released. The reading came out as expected at 0.3% without having a noticeable impact on the US Dollar's valuation.

Have a lovely weekend and a nice week ahead

Monday 30 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:30	AUD	Retail Sales m/m	-	0.2%
Tentative	EUR	German Prelim CPI m/m	-	0.3%

Tuesday 31 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
03:30	CNY	Manufacturing PMI		50.2
Tentative	JPY	BOJ Policy Rate	-0.10%	-0.10%
14:30	CAD	GDP m/m	-	0.0%

Wednesday 01 November 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
03:45	CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6
16:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	-	49.0
20:00	USD	Federal Funds Rate	5.50%	5.50%

Thursday 02 November 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
11:00	EUR	German Final Manufacturing PMI	-	40.7
14:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	-	5.25%
15:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	-	210k

Friday 03 November 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
03:45	CNY	Caixin Services PMI	-	50.2
14:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	-	0.2%
14:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	-	336k