MARKET ANALYSIS

WEEKLY

OUTLOOK

02.10.2023-06.10.2023

Good afternoon traders. As the week approaches its end, we look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the events that had the most impact on the financial market. After hearing the monetary decisions from several central bankers last week this week, we turned back to financial news regarding growth on the major economies.

On Monday, September 25, ECB President Lagarde restated that the level of interest rates will stay restrictive for as long as needed to slow down high inflation. The German Ifo Business Climate Index inched lower to 85.7 in September from August's revised print of 85.8. This reading came in slightly better than the market expectation of 85.2.

The Bank of Japan released on Tuesday September 26, its Core CPI. The reading came slightly above market expectation at 3.3%. In the US, the Conference Board Inc delivered the CB Consumer Confidence. The survey showed that Consumer Sentiment declined in September at 103.00 from 108.7 in August.

Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday, September 27 showed that Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.2% in the year to August 2023, compared with the annual increase of 4.9% seen in July. This reading keeps expectations alive for more rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In the US, Durable Goods Orders for August showed a surprising 0.2% increase contrary to expectations of a 0.5% decline while crude oil inventories revealed an unexpected draw down with the national supply declining over 2 million barrels.

The U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the period, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday, September 28. Initial Jobless Claims totaled 204,000 below the market expectation of 215,000. In Europe, inflation in Germany declined to 4.5% on a yearly basis in September from 6.1% in August based on data released from Destatis.

On Friday, September 27 the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index which indicated that inflation in the US rose to 3.5% on a yearly basis in August from 3.4% in July. Elsewhere, Canada’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was unchanged in July, following a 0.2% decline in June. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.

Have a lovely weekend and a nice week ahead.

Monday 02 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate	-	6.4%
15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	-	47.6

Tuesday 03 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
04:30	AUD	RBA Interest Rate Decision	4.10%	4.10%
15:00	USD	JOLTs Job Openings	-	8.827M

Wednesday 04 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00	NZD	Official Cash Rate		5.50%
13:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	-	177K
15:00	USD	ISM Services PMI	50.2	50.5

Thursday 05 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-	8.04B
09:30	GBP	Construction PMI	-	50.8
13:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	-	-
15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI	-	53.5

Friday 06 October 2023
Time CET (GMT+1)	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
07:00	EUR	German Factory Orders m/m	-	-11.7%
07:00	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m	-	-1.09%
13:30	CAD	Unemployment Rate	-	5.5%
13:30	CAD	Employment Change	-	39.9K
13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	-	0.2%
13:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	--	187K
13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate		3.8%