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MARKET ANALYSIS

Cutting-Edge Market Commentary for Informed Strategy Making

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

28.08.2023-01.09.2023

Good afternoon traders.

Markets started cautiously this week with major currency pairs trading near Friday's closing levels. Monday and Tuesday went by without any significant movement in the market. However, Wednesday was a different story with PMI releases from Germany, UK, US, Eurozone as well as Canadian retail sales data. GBP and Euro faced a sharp drop after alarming PMI readings which showed a rapid decline in the service sectors. The Canadian Dollar also took a hit after core retail sales revealed a larger-than-expected contraction. On Thursday all eyes turned to the Fed’s Symposium in Jackson Hole with several top central bankers of developed countries will make statements and possibly give clues at crucial changes in their monetary policy. Before the event kicked off, a big bag of data got released in the US. Unemployment Claims contracted from 239K to 230K, and Durable Goods Orders went from 4.6% to -5.2%. Lastly, on Friday the day kicked off with Germany releasing the German ifo Business Climate report which came below market expectations at 2.8%. Late afternoon the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell delivered a speech on the US economic outlook followed by ECB’s President Christine Langarde.

Have a nice week ahead.


Monday 28 August

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

04:30

AUD

Retail Sales

0.3%

-0.8%

09:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply

0.1%

0.6%

15:30

USD

Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index

-21.6

-20.0


Tuesday 29 August

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

09:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

-24.2

-24.4

17:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

117.07

17:00

USD

JOLTS Job Openings

9.582M


Wednesday 30 August

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

04:30

AUD

CPI

5.20%

5.40%

Tentative

EUR

German Prelim CPI

0.2%

0.3%

15:30

USD

Prelim GDP

2.4%

2.0%


Thursday 31 August

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

04:30

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

49.5

49.3

12:00

EUR

Core CPI Flash

5.3%

5.5%

15:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index

0.3%

0.3%


Friday 01 September

Time CET

Cur.

Event

Forecast

Previous

04:45

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI

49.5

49.2

15:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

187K

17:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

46.6

46.4




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